Artemis II launch: Will weather cooperate? See maps, key criteria
Artemis II launch: Will weather cooperate? See maps, key criteria
Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORKTue, March 31, 2026 at 2:33 PM UTC
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The much-anticipated Artemis II launch is finally set to lift off after several delays and cancellations.
The mission will carry astronauts on a crewed flight around the moon, marking the first time NASA has sent humans beyond low-Earth orbit since the Apollo program, more than half a century ago. Among the crew is the first woman to travel beyond Earth orbit, making this a historic milestone.
But as always, the question remains: will the weather cooperate? NASA currently forecasts an "80% chance of favorable weather conditions, with cloud coverage and potential for high winds on the ground as primary weather concerns."
Here’s a closer look at the forecast, along with satellite maps that show the key factors forecasters monitor ahead of launch — including how unstable the atmosphere is and how much moisture is available for clouds and storms to develop.
More: Artemis II won't land on the moon. When will astronauts return?
Where is the Artemis II launch?
The rocket will launch from the NASA Kennedy Space Center in Brevard County.
When is the Artemis II launch?
Liftoff is currently set for 6:24 p.m., Wednesday, April 1.
More: What to know about NASA's Artemis II launch and its 10-day moon journey
NASA Kennedy Space Center forecast
Wednesday night will be partly cloudy, with east winds bringing moist air from the ocean. Temperatures will drop into the 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Most areas should stay dry, though a few isolated showers are possible over the nearby Atlantic waters, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
Any stray showers reaching the coast are unlikely, and organized thunderstorms are not expected. Clouds will stick around through the night, especially near the shore, keeping the sky partly cloudy into early Thursday morning.
Artemis II thunderstorm distance rules
Storms don’t need to be directly over the launch site to cause a delay. If thunderstorms move within about 10 nautical miles, the risk from lightning and electrified clouds becomes too high, according to NASA's Artemis II weather criteria.
One of the key tools forecasters use to assess that risk is a CAPE map, which shows how much energy the atmosphere has available for air to rise and form storms.
Shows low-level atmospheric instability and energy available for storm development. Higher values (reds and purples) indicate greater potential for thunderstorms; lower values (grays) suggest stable conditions around 6 p.m. April 1, 2026.
Right now, the highest instability is located offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, while central Florida and the launch site appear relatively stable. But that doesn’t mean the threat is gone.
That nearby pocket of unstable air acts like fuel. As the day progresses, shifting winds or boundaries like the sea breeze could tap into that energy, allowing storms to develop quickly and potentially move toward the Space Coast — bringing them closer to the 10-mile safety threshold.
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As of early Tuesday, March 31, thunderstorms are not in the forecast during the launch period.
1 / 0Inside NASA’s Artemis mission to the moonThe crew of Artemis II (from left) Jeremy Hansen, Christina Koch, Victor Glover and Reid Wiseman pose for pictures as their ride to the moon is transported from the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center, Fla. to the launch pad Jan. 17, 2026.Can Artemis II launch during rain?
This is one of the simplest and strictest constraints — rockets cannot pass through rain. Any precipitation in the flight path is an automatic no-go, regardless of how light or brief it may be, according to the Artemis II launch criteria.
To understand how likely rain is to develop, forecasters look at precipitable water, which measures how much total moisture is present in the atmosphere — essentially or how much rain potential is available if clouds begin to form.
The precipitable water map displays total atmospheric moisture content, indicating how much rain potential exists if clouds form. Greens represent higher moisture levels; lower values indicate drier air less likely to produce precipitation.
Across Florida, moisture levels remain moderate to high, meaning the atmosphere is still capable of producing rain if storms develop. That matters because even brief or isolated showers would violate launch rules.
When combined with nearby atmospheric instability, this moisture increases the likelihood that any developing clouds could quickly turn into rain-producing storms — even if conditions appear quiet at times.
Current forecasts reflect a higher chance of clouds and up to a 20% chance of rain during the morning hours. By the evening launch window around 6:30 p.m., rain chances drop significantly to near 2%, suggesting improving conditions — but not eliminating the risk entirely.
Cloud cover and launch visibility
Cloud cover can affect visibility and influence storm development. According to Artemis II launch rules, a launch cannot occur through clouds that:
Are formed from or attached to a smoke plume, unless at least 60 minutes have passed since detachment.
Are within 5 nautical miles, more than 4,500 feet thick, and extend into freezing temperatures (unless radar and cloud-altitude criteria are met).
Contain cumulus clouds within 10 nautical miles of the flight path that meet certain distance and height criteria.
Cloud cover forecast map shows total cloud cover percentage across the region during the launch period on April 1, 2026. Blue shading shows significant cloudiness; white areas indicate clearer skies, affecting visibility and potential storm development.
Currently, central Florida and the Space Coast are expected to have moderate cloud cover during the morning hours, with some breaks possible. While clouds themselves don’t automatically prevent launch, they can signal changing weather conditions that may increase the risk of rain or lightning — both of which are strict no-go factors.
Lightning is one of the top scrub triggers
Lightning doesn’t have to be directly overhead to stop a launch. If strikes are detected within a set radius — or conditions favor lightning development — the countdown can be halted. Even weakening storms or residual electrical activity can keep a launch grounded.
The lightning flash density map shows detected lightning strikes in the region. Currently, no flashes are forecast during the launch period on April 1, 2026.
Current lightning flash density maps may show no strikes at all, but that doesn’t mean the risk is gone. Nearby atmospheric instability and moisture can still allow clouds to become electrically charged, meaning lightning could develop quickly — or even be triggered by the rocket itself.
Rockets can trigger lightning themselves in the right clouds
A rocket doesn’t need an active thunderstorm to run into trouble. Flying through certain charged clouds can create lightning, even if none is happening yet. That’s why NASA treats some cloud layers as a no-go, even when skies look relatively calm.
Even when conditions seem stable overhead, nearby pockets of unstable air can cause clouds to become electrically charged. This means a rocket could still trigger lightning, highlighting the need for close monitoring of cloud cover and electrical activity throughout the launch window.
In a 1969 archive, NASA explains:
"The launch of a rocket through thunder, or shower, clouds carries with it a definite lightning hazard - not so much because the rocket will be hit accidentally by natural lightning but because the rocket will trigger off its own lightning as soon as it enters strong electric fields inside the cloud."
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Artemis II ready to fly. Will weather stay friendly or delay launch?
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